Model Research On The Risk Evaluation Of Land Requisition And Resettlement In The Middle Route Of South-to-North Water Diversion Project Based On Analytic Hierarchy Process

The work of land requisition and resettlement is a system engineering of strong policy,complicated operation, wide range and of big difficulty, the accomplishment quality of which will directly affect the smooth progress of construction and the quality of the completion of the resettlement and industrial production and living standards of the masses, enterprises,institutions,the recovery of special facilities,and even affect regional stability and development.Papers for the current risk assessment of resettlement are mostly qualitative research.Based on a combination of domestic and foreign research results on resettlement,in this paper,we construct an assessment index system of land requisition and resettlement which is suitable for the middle route of south-to-north water diversion project,and then do the qualitative and quantitative treatment to the risk classification of the assessment index system.At last,we establish a risk assessment model of the land requisition and resettlement based on AHP,and we give an quantitative and qualitative analysis about the risk of the chaohe section in the middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project.The main results of this paper are as follows:(1)Establishing a risk assessment index system of land requisition and resettlement,and developing the corresponding risk classification space.Refering to a large number of documents on the risk analysis of reservoir resettlement,highways,etc,in this paper, we analyze and summarize the achievements at home and abroad.Using the WBS-RBS risk identification model,with a comprehensive theory and practice identifying indicators of risk,we screen off some indicators,at last we establish a risk assessment index system of the land requisition and resettlement. Under the existing legal norms, policies, standards, supervision information, monitoring and evaluation information related to the resettlement and some other relevant engineering experience, this paper make a risk classification space of the risk assessment index,and then the risk assessment index is divided from a quantitative or qualitative point of view as "higher risk, high risk, general risk, low risk, lower risk".(2)Establishing a risk assessment model of land requisition and resettlement based on AHP.First,this paper use the WBS-RBS risk identification model to identify the risk indicators,and then analyze each risk index and the relative importance of the work,use the expert scoring method to empower the weight. Then, according to the actual implementation, with reference to indicators of risk classification space, we determine the level of risk attached to the various risk indicators. Finally, according to the theory of risk, experts score for the index value, combined with the risk index weight, the weighted sum calculation work underlying risk value, calculated hierarchical layer by layer, the target layer to obtain project risk value,and then finish the costruction of the complete model.(3) Examples of application and analysis for the resettlement risk assessment model.The evaluation model is applied to the risk assessment of the chaohe section in the middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project,and verify the feasibility of the model. By comparing the effect of the implementation of the planning and implementation of risk assessment results, this paper analyze the problems and give some targeted advice and suggestions.