Economic Synthesized Appraised And Risk Analysis Of Project

This article is combined with the content of "the project of four rivers' fathering in HUNAN Province", on the basis of referring to a number of literature search of both domestic and abroad, aiming at lacking a series of information and subsisting extraordinary uncertainty on constructing project, exercising method of practically simulation to calculate the benefit of prevent or control-flood, combining the risk analysis of appraised result, processing synthesized appraised, educing comparatively exactly appraised result, and providing gist of the theory for EPWEDSS. The main contents of this dissertation are listed as follows:1. Analysis and summarized a number of appraised literature search of both domestic and abroad, on the basis of this, put forward the content of this paper. And brief presented context project of this paper: The Project of Four Rivers' Fathering in HUNAN Province.2. Calculating the profit of prevented or controlled flood with method of frequency and method of practically simulation, and processed sensitively analysis, thought settled lacking a series of information and subsisting extraordinary uncertainty on constructing project on a certain extent.3. Confirmed index modulus in index system of risk analysis of constructing projects through exerting "triangle distributing" method of expert analysis, picked up randomly number on distributing symmetrical with method of multiply and residual. Processing the risk analysis of the project of four rivers' fathering through Monte- Carlo digital simulating method and educed content result in the end.4. Disposed the relation of profit factors each other on different quantitatively through exerting projective method of gray association, solved conflicts in all kinds of profit factors on a certain extent, provided scientific gist of theory for processing synthetically appraise on project exactly.5. This paper imported projective method of gray association into EPWDSS, and combined the theory of blurry aggregation, established the decision-making model on base of the projective method of gray association. At last, calculated the project of four rivers' fathering through this model and attained the target favoring.