Enterprise Safety Produce Economy Performance Analysis And Prediction Method Research

Safety analysis and the safety prediction base on that is the part of macroscopic safety research. The thesis analyzed the general regulation of the macroscopic safe condition in business enterprise base on inquisition data by Shandong province safety produce surveillance management bureau, to analyzed factors that influence business enterprise safety produce and present safety condition in profession on the summary, studying the correlation that the relative safety indexes namely million man-hour dead and injured number and million man-hour accident number of times with average safety devotion every worker, imitate their the function relation.Summarized the law of the safety economy performance t and the lost control strategy. Take research of ration of safety devotion, propose calculation formula of safety devotion, analyzed and proved economic principle through calculation formula of safety devotion. According to the principle of economic benefits maximizing of the safety devotion, put forward the biggest economic benefits computing technology of devotion, confirm the best safety economic input, and confirm the safety control strategy value from this, offer the basis for formulation of the macroscopically safety tactics.In understanding the current in common use prediction method and the research present condition especially combination method and its existent problems, used the regression analyses prediction method, time sequence prediction method and G-M prediction method as the sub-methods of superior combination method to estimate the safe index sign of the macroscopic safe condition in a future period, and proceeding accuracy analysis and studied the feasibility that combination method applies to prediction in the safety realm.