Research On Price Strategy For A Hydropower Provider

The renovation based on market economics in Chinese electric industry has advanced into a new phase with making electric generation market competitive. Therefore, the traditional hydroelectric plants have to change their roles from the enterprises only for safe production to hydroelectric companies with producing, operating, market analysis and marketing. Because the profits of the independent water power providers depends on not only system balance price but also the temporal distribution of total power amount, it is very necessary to sell more power at high power price and less power at lower power price for increasing profit of the companies. Thus, it is very significant for them to study the bidding strategy in a competitive electricity market.The further research on price strategy has been done in this thesis. They are as follows:Firstly, based on the theoretic analysis of SMP and the historical data about marginal price, the models such as linear remove and auto-regression, and linear remove combining with exponential flatness and filtering price forecast model have been established in this study. According to the established models, the real-time marginal price at 96 points on the following day can be forecasted. Then the hydroelectric companies can make the decision on bidding policy based on marginal price forecast. Secondly, the decision on bidding policy can be considered as an approximate non-cooperation gaming process with incomplete information. By combining the operating characteristics of hydroelectric generating sets with the above models, a series of bidding policies of hydroelectric companies based on expectation price and game theory were established. By simulating the representative data during flood periods, dry periods and median flow periods and comparing the results with the observed data, the conclusion that the results are practical and have a good fit with observed data can be drawn. Thirdly, the risk decision method based on expectation profit-loss criterion was put forward. The possible economic risk of the independent water power providers was assessed and some measures minimizing the risk were provided. Finally, the bidding decision support system was set up. According to the system, the bidding procedures were described in detail and three subsystems such as operation, bidding decision and economic analysis were analyzed emphatically in this study.