Risk Analysis In Cost Management Of Public Project

Great development of economics in China has created huge demand on public projects, so the government on each administrative level increases their investment on public service. But the increase in the amount of the public projects hasn't fundamentally promoted the improvement of the project control effect. Public projects are still beset with cost overrun or even failure of investment. Risk, which is a main factor effecting project cost, should be taken into account in cost estimation in the decision making stage. In this dissertation, the author has a research on the risk analysis in cost management in public project in China with the following contents:1. With referring to the literature related, definition of risk, risk analysis, project cost and public project are given. It's proposed that the risk analysis in public project should be based on the life-cycle cost to maximize the value for money.2. Analyzes the reasons for cost overrun in public project, with considering features of cost management in public project of China, from the aspect of risk analysis. The author points out that the lack of risk analysis in decision making stage is a main reason for it and analyzes the necessity of risk analysis in public project in China.3. The author analyzes the procedure and features of the risk analysis system in PFI projects of UK and PPPI projects of Australia in the forth part of the dissertation, with the aim to draw some ideas during constructing the risk analysis system in Chinese public project.4. With considering the facts in China and the features of public project which is related to the risk analysis, the author sets up in the fifth part the risk analysis system of Chinese public project according to the clew and procedure in PFI and PPPI. Finally, five advices are suggested about how to promote the risk analysis of public project in China.