Policy Study On Keeping Away Real Estate Bubble In China

The top economist called XieGuozhong in Morgan Stanley wrote a English research report named 《Bursting Property Bubble?》 in August,2002. He indicated high yield was attracting more and more capital diving into real estate on account of capital overmuch in China. He was afraid that bubble had appeared in Chinese real estate. This article is for researching real estate's actuality and post the latent factor that leads the property bubble,and then brings forward the countermeasure about keeping away the catastrophic real estate bubble.At first,the article not only discusses the reasons that real estate becomes the carrier of bubble,the bubble behaves form and its harm in theory but also explains the bubble with dummy capital theory,market behave theory,finance crisis theory etc. The article also collects and settles several typical real estate bubbles,and then brings forward the revelation that international experiences give us by analyzing the reason that bubble was engendered. Secondly,based on the theory and case analyses,this article makes out basic estimate about the actuality of our real estate market from four guide line: dimensions,structure,fund,speed,and then educes the benign develop circumscription by exerting regress statistical model combined with the macroscopically statistic data from 1987 to this day. Further more it processes the guide line system's compound by exerting risk evaluate method. After the demonstration analyses,the article analyzes the latent factors that lead the current bubble,and nails down the cognition to real estate market and the direction for policy selection. At last,this article points out the shortages of current policies,and puts forward the countermeasure about keeping away the severe real estate bubble.