| With the deepening of the reform of housing system and the accelerating of the urbanization process, the industry of real estate in China has been developing rapidly in recent years, and real estate market appears flourishing in supply and demand. However all the people focus on the problem about whether the price of real estate is rational and economic bubble exists in the market or not. And the reason for the change is that the percentage of real estate investment and the loan in the industry of real estate increase quickly, furthermore the prices of the houses rise widely and rapidly in more and more cities in China.Firstly, the author gives the definition of real estate bubble, and analyses the mechanism of shaping, developing and breach of the bubble, and introduces the domestic and overseas scholars' research on the method of testing the bubble. Later positive analysis bases on the previous theory about real estate bubble. Secondly, the author analyses the experience and lesson about real estate bubble in foreign countries, and use it for reference. Thirdly, according to the collecting data about the industry of real estate and macro-economy, the author makes use of graphs and tables of the data and analyses the circumstance of investment, sale and change of price in real estate market, and estimates the condition in real estate market primarily. Fourthly, the author takes measure to analyse the reason why the price of houses rose quickly by using theoretical and econometric methods, and measures the function of some factors such as land price, average income, the level of urbanization, the reform of housing system and so on. Fifthly, the author analyses the relation between the extent of the price of houses rising and increasing in supply of currency by econometric methods, and estimates financial risk in the industry of real estate. Sixthly, the author uses five indexes to estimate the extent of real estate bubble and identify whether the bubble exist in the market,...
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