The Innovation Diffusion Rate Model And Its Empirical Analysis

Since people realized the innovation brought into the production process is one of the important factors to result in the economic growth, the innovation diffusion becomes one of the focuses of the research on management of all of the world. The most successful of these are the ones delegated by Bass. They post the mechanism of innovation diffusion and gained lots of results by constructing differential dynamics model with making up differential equation . But since the influence factors are too many to analysis the process of innovation diffusion by all numbers. So, with summarizing the known researches on innovation diffusion , we model 5 innovation diffusion dynamic models and one Cellular Automata model aimed at the lacks of the conditional models and make mathematics analysis and empirical analysis on these models .First, aimed at the lack of the hypothesis of the potential consumers are homogenous, we model a innovation diffusion model based on the members migrate between two colonies since people have different adopt rate for their standard living, living environment and consumption habits, we analysis the model with differential dynamic theory and find that the the mount of the innovation diffusion will tend to a fixed number with stated terms wether people migrate or not. Secondly, the new product has its life-span, so we make up a model with time-lag base on the previous model.Through the mathematics analysis,we find with stated terms the mount of the innovation diffusion will also tend to a fixed number and keep stabilization. Thirdly, a diffusion model is given with the periodic advertisement and dynamic market potential aimed at thehypothesis of the exterior infection coefficient is constant and the market potential will also change periodically. Fourth, we make up a three-phase model for the competitive diffusion of two innovations, the mount of the innovation diffusion will tend to a fixed number, the number will change as the terms change. Lastly, a model is made up for many innovations diffuse synchronously since the various relations between them.It may exist cases of independence diffusion,blocked diffusion, hastened diffusion and increase nd decrease diffusion. Except these, we also model a model base on the Cellular Automata.At last, we make demonstration analysis on the models and gain perfectly results with the numbers of China mobile, telephone,China TV set and the popularized number of the breeding on land in suining of China.