The Mechanism Model Of Diffusion Of Technology Innovation And Empirical Analysis

It is concluded that the quantitative analysis is not enough according to the study condition of diffusion of technology innovation at home and abroad. Furthermore, there almost were static analysis and the empirical analysis based on the quantitative analysis is deficient too. Because of these insufficiency, this paper described the mechanism and discipline of technology diffusion and empirical analysis about it based on the study of the basic conception, model and mechanism and three perfect mathematic models such as Bass model, Logistic model and Steffens-Murthy model.This paper set up four economic mathematic models as follows. Firstly, it studied the incubation time in new technology diffusion applied Mass model, interpreted the influence factors to incubation time. According to the study of Bass equation, it described the distribution features of incubation time, studied the relations between diffusion rate and the coefficient of innovation and imitation, and the time to peak sales and the point of inflection of diffusion function and the maximumdiffusion rate.Secondly, this paper set up the diffusion model of innovation incorporating price, advertising and distribution, and given the optimal diffusion equation and characterized qualitatively optimum price, advertising and distribution. Furthermore, it studied the ratio relations among the advertising elasticity of demand and the price elasticity of demand and the distribution elasticity of demand. Finally studied the influence of marketing mix variables to the technology diffusion.Thirdly, this paper set up the diffusion model of innovation including variant latent consumers such as adopters, possible ones and unknown ones. Then given the differential diffusion equation according to the study of the transmission of these three parts and discussed the stability of solution and controllability and measurability of this system. Finally described the influence of the economy and government to the innovation diffusion.Finally, this paper set up the substitute model between the new technology and the old one and studied characteristic of the diffusion system applied system dynamic method such as the stable points and phase portrait and Hopf bifurcation and limit cycle of it. Then studied the probability distribution function of them, and the probabilistic equation of this system.On the basis of above model analysis, this paper carried out some reasonable consults according to three empirical analyses as follows. It discussed the distribution characteristic of incubation time and the diffusion process according to the study of diffusion of 28 kinds of durable consumptions in America; the influence of marketing fix variants such as price, advertising and distribution according to the study of the diffusion of TV products in China; the influence of exterior factors such as economy and government according to the study of thediffusion of combine harvesters in China. Finally discussed the present condition of innovation diffusion in China and expounded a serial of useful advise and suggests.