Research On Warning Of AD Initiations Against Chinese Export Commodities

The dissertation constructs an anti-dumping warning model based on the GM (1, 1) Model of Grey Theory. The model estimates AD initiations against Chinese commodities with a view to warning the parties concerned to take necessary measures to minimize AD accusations and the loss sustained.Firstly, the dissertation lays emphasis on the research of AD warning model by stating the fact that the issue becomes increasingly severe for Chinese export commodities and exerts great negative impact on China's economy as well as export trade. And the majority of enterprises in China involved are put in a dilemma. Secondly, the feasibility of such a research is conducted. Grey Theory and its GM (1, 1) Model are introduced and the "Grey" feature (indefinite) of AD accusations against China is illustrated by a survey and analysis of the reasons thereof. Finally, a model is constructed, on the basis of the study above and the statistics of AD initiations against China from the yearl995to 2003, to estimate the figures in the following years 2004-2005.