Eu Anti-dumping Early-warning Systems Research

The number of anti-dumping petitions initiated by foreign countries to china has always increased. EC is one of the largest users of anti-dumping against china. Being highly dependent on international trade with the EC, China has particularly concerned with the anti-dumping problem existing in the trading between EC and China. This paper analyzed the main reasons that the number of anti-dumping petitions against China initiated by EC has increased dramatically in recent years, on the basis of which, we constructs an early-warning model of anti-dumping petitions initiated by EC towards China to show the trend and alert when unusual changes appeared. This model is helpful when government and enterprises determined policies and took measures to defend themselves against the anti-dumping petitions initiated by EC, controlled and reduced the number of anti-dumping, avoided and relieved the cost caused by anti-dumping survey. The structure of the paper is as follows.First, we analyzed the international trade relationship between EC and China, emphasizing on the anti-dumping matter including its character and trend.Second, we discussed the anti-dumping circumstance and its effect on our country's economics and foreign trade. In this chapter, we also undertook a comparative study of the main reasons of anti-dumping by different developed countries and provided a quantitative analysis of these reasons and their comparative importance.Finally, on the basis of the study above, referring to the early-warning model in other fields, we constructed an early-warning model of anti-dumping by EC against China. The model included three aspects: I to establish the guideline system of the early-warning model; II to generate a statistic model with a significant test; Illto form a predictable model of anti-dumping, by which the anti-dumping trend will be revealed and alert will be sound when any unusual changes occurred.