Country Risk Assessment In Export Credit Insurance

This paper puts emphasis on discussing the issue of country risk assessment in the field of export credit insurance. Export credit insurance divides country risk into political risk and economic risk. Usually political risk decides the willingness-to-pay while economic risk decides the ability-to-pay. With reference to political risk, the article picks out 11 variables which are endowed with different weight according to their influences on political risk, and then sums up the score of each variable to evaluate political risk of a country. With reference to economic risk, the article takes net foreign exchange income as core index and set different flux and accumulated index to evaluate the country economic risk. Finally the article makes use of Black-Scholes option pricing model to calculate the overall country risk index, and then analyzes the country risk level of China and Chile under different guarantee levels. JEL classification:G22...