Analysis Of Sino-ASEAN Trade Relationship And Trade Effect Of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area

Nowadays , with the development of the world economy, our world has become regionalized which was combined with great economical organization . UN, NAFTA etc have given us a good example. Currently, an important character and trend of the globalization is the swift development of the regional economic cooperation. At the end of 2003, there were about 240 FTA in the world.Our neighbor—ASEAN ,which was established in 1967,has got great economical success and has been looked as the most successful FTA from the developing countries. ASEAN is our neighbor . Our economic will rely on each other and contest with each other. In the November of 2001, China brought forward the notion of establishing China-ASEAN Free Trade Area in the next 10 years .This notion has got positive response from the ASEAN countries. If this FTA has been established successfully, it will contain 180 hundred million consumers , 2000 billion USD gross domestic product and 1300 billion USD foreign trade quantum per year. It will be the third large FTA of the world . While , at the same time ,some people are still suspicious of itssignificance .They have no confidence of the establishment of CAFTA. In this paper ,we will analysis the trade relationship between China and the countries of ASEAN, then research the trade effect of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area ,so that we can eliminate their qualm and promote the establishment of CAFTA.This thesis is divided into seven chapters .The first chapter introduces the definition ,essence and theory of economic integration.In the second chapter , it reviews the history of economic cooperation between China and ASEAN countries, and analysis the whole structure of their mutual trade . Then it uses quantitative analysis tool, Grubel-Lloyed Index, to research the Intra-industrial Trade between China and the ASEAN.In the third chapter, It analyses the foreign trade pattern and export competition between China and the ASEAN. Introduce their foreign trade and uses quantitative analysis tool, Revealed Comparative Advantage Indices, to research the competition.In the forth chapter , it analyzes the complementation between China and the ASEAN. Introduce their complementation from the side of natural resources ,product trade ,and market, to show the substance basic of establishing CAFTA.The fifth chapter is an analysis of the background of theestablishment of CAFTA and the prediction of its prospect. In this chapter it uses the gravity model to seek empirical evidence of the trading bloc —ASEAN during 2002. Then it tries to find the important factors that have grate influence on the foreign trade of the ASEAN's members, analyzes the relationship between ASEAN and China , forecast the benefit on the assumption that the CAFTA has been established.In the sixth chapter, it analyzes the process of establishing CAFTA and the difficulties .The last chapter is the conclusion of the whole thesis .Lijuan Xie ( Inrernational Trade )Supervised by Professor Shenyong Zhang...