Research On Factors Analyze And Development Prediction In Domestic Life Insurance Market

Since the policy of reforming and opening up to the outside world ,the life insurance in China have got great development with a remarkable speed ,and it received excellent effect in the field of economy and society . Because the welfarism will be reformed ,individuals will face more potential risks of natural disasters and accidents , and with the further development of the market economy of our country ,the continuous improvement of the labor production level ,the increase of people's income ,we are sure that the life insurance in our country will have an opportunity to develop fast. At this condition, it has been an important task to grasp the life insurance market, especially its rule ,character and trend, and explore the potential of this market in order to develop the life insurance market healthily. The purpose of this dissertation is to research the main factors that influence the demand of the life insurance market, and make certain of the influence degree that these factors impact the life insurance demand. At the foundation of the above, we will make use of the grey system theory to establish a forecast model, then forecast the prospect of the life insurance demand and analyze the development potential. Finally, we will point out the opportunities and challenges that the life insurance will meet, and the problems in the life insurance market, then we will bring forward a few proposes and countermeasures. This dissertation presents the following innovations: 1. This paper makes use of Delphi method to chose, evaluate and confirm a set of factors. These factors are scientific and reasonable. 2. According to the basic principle of the Grey System theory, this paper analyzes and studies the relationship between the demand of the life insurance and the influence factors with the method of Grey Relationship Analyze. This innovation overcomes the defects of other researches on the life insurance. 3.With the character of little sample, This dissertation use the GM(1,1) model to solve the subject of the market prediction, and predict the future demand for the life insurance. After that, we bring forward some suggests to improve the life insurance market and promote its development. The use of GM(1,1) model overcomes the difficulties which are brought by limited and grey data.