Chinese Iron Ore Demand Forecasting And Developing Strategies Research

Compared with the iron ore resources in other resource-rich countries, the iron ore resources in china are lower in grade, poorer in quality, and more difficult in extraction and transportation. Therefore, the shortage in domestic iron ore supply has become a bottle neck of the iron and steel industry. It is urgent to study two issues: (1) the forecasting of the iron ore demand and require in the next several years. (2) Chinese iron ore developing strategies research because of the contradiction between the demand and require of the iron ore. The research help more people realize the iron ore resource condition deeply in our country. It is instructive to use domestic and international iron ore resources rationally and efficiently in the world.Firstly, the article introduces the developing condition of iron ore resources in China. Secondly, on the base of lots of data the paper analyses the basic factors affecting the iron ore demand in our country relation to the iron ore extraction and importing practice for twenty years and put forward the system dynamics model of Chinese iron ore. The research shows it is reasonable to study Chinese iron ore demand and require in the method of system dynamics .The result shows iron ore supply and demand has close relation to the GDP and economic developing level. Thirdly, the model forecast that iron ore demand will be over 72533.5 million ton by 2010. Fourthly, the paper show relevant developing policies are necessary on the base of iron ore developing condition. The policies include strengthening the management in mining > increasing investment to iron ore resources, decreasing tax, keeping stable price in the trading , founding Asia iron ore market, taking part in iron ore price negotiation every year and so on.The actual meaning of this thesis lies in putting forward the system dynamics model of the iron ore of china and predicting the development scales and trends of relevant variable through simulation in computer. It is very important to establish long iron ore supply strategies to get rid of the resource spread defect of steel and iron industry. Secondly, the paper demonstrates the importance of relevant developing strategies and gives us theory support when government makes relevant policies. It has practice meaning to guide iron ore developing in our country.