Econometric Forecast Of Iron Ore Demand In China

16th National Congress of the communist party of China established the goal of development of The rich society in 2020, realizes that The GDP will quadruples by then, and double it in 2010. The iron ore , as one of the basic raw materials of national economic development, to the big countries which are in fast industrialized developing period as our country does, are in the very time for consumption. Faces the resource geological structure of iron ore of our country, being complicated, the grade lower, the requirements for transportation bad, such as being even . What kind of resource guarantee of iron ore to reach the need of this goal? In order to ensure iron ore resources supply need us making and implementing what kind of resource strategy of iron ore? Answer this question , needs realizing the goal of economic development essential resource amount of iron ore being carried on science , and do quantitative prediction at first.For this reason, this paper researches the important problem of sustainable development of steel and iron industry that related our country. First of all, this thesis is analysed about the iron ore market of our country based on The supply and demand theory of economics, and combine the great resolution, the policy and sudden incident over the years of our country, by collecting a large amount of historical data, puting them in order and analying the main factor which influences the iron ore demand of our country, thus set up the measured economic model of iron ore requirement forecasting suits for our country. Analyse indicates that, The main factors of the iron ore demand of our country are those, the GDP of our country , consumption of resident, imports and exports , investment in fixed assets , 1997 Asian financial crisis and every lagging variable of the variables. Second, adopt the economy of measuring to set up a model of predicting, by using The software G7 of the measured econemics carries on the quantitative one to forecast the iron ore demand of our country in advance with the aid of U.S.A Maryland university CLOOPER ALMON Examine, predict indicates that our country shows a tendency that the iron ore demand is obviously rising in the following 8 years, differentiate demand iron ore (calculate according to domestic quality original ore ) ups to 568,493,400 in the Year 2005 and 656,678,600 , 2010.Third, but the output and technology of iron ore of our country put forward the corresponding settlement measure limitedly in the face of so largy demand of iron ore of our country.