Demand Forecasting And Developm Proposal For Home-based Aged-car Service In China

Based on the background of population aging and lack of family support for the aged in China, this paper holds that the community-based home care model should be extended to tackle the increasingly sharp problem. With the contradiction between the urgent needs of society for home care for the aged and the reality of the slow development of it existing, the corresponding supporting policies, mechanisms and funding ought to be arranged to promote the rapid development of community-based home care services in China, whereas the scientific and effective demand forecasting and analysis are indispensable.After reviewing our demographic and social environment and the current situation of home-based aged-care service, the research predicts the dynamic future demand and trend of home care services for the aged in China by using the data from "National Survey of Urban and Rural Older Population" in 2000 and 2006 by China National Committee on Aging and Population administration decision information system (PADIS). The Monte Carlo micro-simulation models with the measurement by the family household unit are utilized, which is the innovation in this research. The result shows that the need for the home care services will be rising under severe old-age pension pressure during the first half of the 21st century in China. It is estimated that the total amount needed in urban will reach its peak in 2043, while the demand in rural will have a enormous increasing belong with its development. Of the specific items, spiritual consolation services become more and more important. The labors for the community-based home care service will double every five years in city, while the need for human resources in rural is even higher so as to bring out a good effect on employment. Based on the above conclusions, this paper presents the thinking of the establishment and development for the China's old-age home service system.