The Construction Of Early-warning Indicator System For Mass Incidents

Since the reform and opening, with the rapid development of China’s economy,the gap between the rich and poor is expanding and the social contradictions isincreasingly fierce. Therefore, various social problems appeared. In recent years, thereis an upward trend of the occurrence of mass incidents. The mass incidents seriouslydisturb the social order, affect social stability and the socialist construction of ourcountry. The mass incidents frequently occurred has become a prominentmanifestation of social contradictions during the period of social transformation ofour country, and is regarded as the epitome of social conflict. So it is necessary toestablish the feasible early-warning indicator system for mass incidents to improvethe early-warning mechanism of it. Through the scientific evaluation system, we cananalyze the early-warning information accurately, and grasp the development trendtimely. In order to restrain the mass incidents in the forming stage, and minimize itsadverse consequences.First and foremost, based on the research of some present related theory ofmass incidents, we discussed the concept, the cause and the evolution process of massincidents systematically. Based on the existing research, we analyze theearly-warning mechanism and its indicator system of mass incidents, then we build apreliminary early-warning indicator system of mass incidents.We used the Delphimethod to modify and perfect the indicator system. Finally, we determined anearly-warning indicator system of mass incidents. It consists of three systems, tensubsystems and sixty-five specific indicators. Afterwards, in order to lay thefoundation for the quantitative analysis of early-warning evaluation model of massincidents, we used the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to determine the weight of each index in this indicator system.Through the study of warning evaluation method for mass incidents, we adoptedfuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to build early-warning evaluation model ofmass incidents finally. Firstly, we elaborated the fuzzy comprehensive evaluationmethod in detail and designed the concrete steps of early-warning level fuzzycomprehensive evaluation for mass incidents. Then combined with the analytichierarchy process (AHP) and early-warning indicator system of mass incidentsestablished, we established early-warning level evaluation of AHP and fuzzycomprehensive evaluation model for mass incidents.Finally, a real mass incident has already occurred as an example, we used thisearly-warning rank evaluation model of mass incidents to decide the warning level ofthis event, in order to verify the effectiveness of the early-warning indicator system.