Study On The Group Events Early Warning Mechanism

With the development of Chinese society and economy and the deepening of reform and opening up, Our social contradiction was highlighted. The Conflicts of interest lead to intensification. of the social conflict. Social conflicts, especially Mass Events occurred frequently. This is a tremendous threat to the stability of our society. We can enumerate many Group Events, such as Weng’an event、Hubei shishou even、Wukan event and Jiangsu qidong event. These serious group events bring great impact on China’s social stability. This is a reminder that we must establish a reliable emergency management mechanism of group events. The first step is to establish a early warning mechanism for group events, and ensure it be sensitive and quick responsive. We can apply scientific method to monitor group events. And we can prepare to prevent and manage group events as soon as possible. After the outbreak of group events, the government can take action according to the early warning program. This can reduce the harm of group events to our society and economy.First and foremost, based on the research of some present related theory of group events, we discussed the concept, the cause and the evolution process of group events systematically. Based on the existing research, we analyze the early-warning mechanism and its indicator system of group events, then we build a preliminary early-warning indicator system of mass incidents. Afterwards, in order to lay the foundation for the quantitative analysis of early-warning evaluation model of group events, we used the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to determine the weight ofWe adopted fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to build early-warning evaluation model of group events. Firstly, we elaborated the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method in detail and designed the concrete steps of early-warning level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation for group events. Then combined with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and early-warning indicator system of group events established, we established early-warning level evaluation of AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for group events.