On Consumption Demand And Economic Fluctuation Of China

Research on economic fluctuation is a very important part of macroeconomics. Progress of research on economic fluctuation of China is very quick and it have made a lot of achievement since 1980's.But different people have different views on reason of economic fluctuation of China and there is not a conclusion up to now.Consumption demand is a very important variable in economic fluctuation. Constraint of market have become more and more apparent in economic life of China since 1994. Affection of consumption demand on economic fluctuation become more and more important when a series of policy and measure of aiming at setting demand is ineffective. How to adjust and control consumption so as to assuage economic fluctuation is getting more and more pressed. The thesis is ready to discuss this problem preliminarily. The whole thesis is divided into two parts with interaction of consumption demand and economic fluctuation of China for main clues.The first part (chapter 2 to chapter 4) analyzes and compares appearance and charaffecteristic of economic fluctuation before reform and after reform of China. We know that economic stability of China have improved notably since reform, one of reason of which is affection of consumption on economic growth is more and more strong. We analyze appearance and charaffecteristic of consumption fluctuation of China since 1953 after eliciting consumption. We had perceptual and direct knowledge to lay the foundation for the hind analysis.Next we analyze the correlation of consumption demand and economic fluctuation of China.It is analyzed from theory at first. We demonstrated that consumption demand and economic fluctuation is interactive from consumption scale aspect. We demonstrated that if elevation of consumption structure suits economic growth and conversion of economic structure, economic fluctuation will become gentle or economic fluctuation will become worse from consumption structure aspect, also. Next we analyze the correlation of consumption fluctuation and economic fluctuation from positivism. The result of positive analysis is as follows: 1. Consumption fluctuation is influenced by economic fluctuation of the same period and the period of lagging one year.2. Economic fluctuation is influenced by Consumption fluctuation ,of the same period and period of lagging one year.3. Affection of consumption on economic fluctuation is more and more strong. It strengthened theconclusion that consumption demand and economic fluctuation is interactive.The second part (chapter 5 to chapter 6) is extension of the first part. It is port of call of the thesis, also. The purpose of the analysis of the consumption demand and economic fluctuation is to keep the economy in the safe range. Model of time serial is applied to forecast the growth of consumption and economy. We confirm the safe range and put forward the accordingly suggestion and measure according to the result, at last.