Research On Demand Forecasts And Competency Assessment Of Tactical Logistics

There is a contradiction between lacking of preparing time and much varied targets in the logistics support. In the thesis, the mathematical method and quantitative analysis technology are used for reducing the"sudden"and"uncertainty"in the support process, which are of great significance for the informatization logical support.The main factors of restrict tactical logistics and the necessity of the forecast of support demand and the assessment of capacity were posed in the thesis based on the status of the work of tactical logistics. The demand forecast was divided into the linear forecast and the random forecast in the thesis that focus on discussing the ration analysis process of the random forecast and the establishing of the Gray forecast model. The competency assessment was divided into the support assessment and the managing assessment in the thesis, which elaborated on evaluation system, confirming target, target remark quantum, evaluating of forecast and calculating through using the dim composite assessment theory. Combining with the concrete, the thesis testifies the effectiveness of the mathematical model of the demand forecast and the competency assessment.The function of the thesis is to direct the tactical logistics support.