The Prediction Analysis Of Chengdu Residential Demand

Over the pass triennium, with span development of the Chengdu economy and housing restructure continual embed, Chengdu real estate market, especially housing market explosive rose under the motivation of financial institution's consumer credit policy. In order to indemnify the realty business to develop healthily, the central and provincial government adopted some measures and utilized macro control instrument to cool the real estate market, and to restrain runaway the house price under the high pressure of constricting industry policy and financial policy, the house price of the Chengdu downtown remains up to 16.98%, but the per capita DI of the residents remains only 7.8% in 2004. So the regulating effect of policies is very limited. What causes the house price to skyrocket? Is the cost of the construction rose? Or dose the cost of the land rose? Or does the relation between supply and demand impact? Or is the result of manifold coactions? Owing to the real estate market territorial, and the state macro control unity, the Chengdu municipality must proceed from self practical situation to hunt problematical answers, to the remedy to the case, and to make tried and true measures to stabilize the house price, to promote the real estate market development healthily.The thesis take the practical problems as primacy research mission, and take the housing demand of the Chengdu City as study object. Firstly, the thesis discusses the housing demand notion and theory; secondly, the thesis reviews thehousing market in the Chengdu City and plots the development phases, and describe the status quo totally. To grasp the Chengdu City housing market function law, the thesis utilizes market researching, expert interviewing to spread contrastive analysis. The contrastive analysis is the housing providing main body and the housing demanding main body in the Chengdu City. So the thesis analyses the characteristic of the housing supply and demand more correctly. The thesis begins with the housing quantity and quality, and fully consider the demand of autonomy housing demand and passive housing demand, and incorporate the factors of population and household, reconstruction and continued development and administrative division. The thesis makes quantitative prediction analyses on those foundations. At last, the author gives some advice to the market participator and government according the actuality and future fluctuant trend of the Chengdu City housing market.