Applied Studies On The Demand Side Management Of Electric Power In Jiangsu Province

Electrical power, as one of the indispensable resources to social production and everyday life, as well as the important material foundation to secure the economic development, plays a very important role in very aspects of social progress and social life. In the recent years, with the sustainable growth of national economy, the "bottleneck" problem of power supply becomes increasingly serious, with severe economy and period-concerned power shortage in many areas, affecting the economic development and daily life of local residents. Confronted with the short supply of electricity, the State Council adjusts the "tenth five-year program" to reinforce the construction of power supply. Equally noticeable is the craze in a new round of investments and developments in power projects, in which hidden concerns may harbour, for excessive construction of power projects may result in enormous dangers. The present power shortage does not simply due to insufficient power supply, but due to more profound reasons, which needs to be viewed and resolved from a scientific and developing aspect. In order to reduce the demand of power energy without affecting environmental protection, economic growth, or the comfortable daily life, a better solution should be found to improve the utilization ratio of electrical energy. Correspondingly, demand side management (DSM), a technology to improve the utilization ratio of electrical energy, is promoted and applied in the developed countries throughout the world.Demand Side Management (DSM), which is a main program of Integrated Resources Plan (IRP), is an advanced technology of resources management applied world-wide nowadays. It focuses on improving the efficiency of terminal use of power, bettering the way of power use and alleviating the reliance on power supply. This thesis makes a comprehensive discussion on the development of DSM at home and abroad and its latest progress, based on a general presentation on its basic concepts, methods and properties. According to the features of power supply and demand in Jiangsu province, the author figures out a corresponding power prediction method, with a view of predicting the tendency of the power consumption and power supply in Jiangsuprovince and making a qualitative analysis of power system load in this area by applying the ARIMA Model and Holt dual Parameters Smooth Model respectively.In view of the increasingly intensified conflicts between power supply and demand, power shortage, and annually widening gap between peak and valley value of power system, it proposes reinforcing the DSM and improving the comprehensive resources programs besides further quickening the construction of power projects.With an aim to distribute and utilize power resources more reasonably and more effectively, control environmental pollution, yield more material wealth with less power consumption, meet the power demand to the largest extent, DSM is supposed to be an important measure to ensure the balance between power supply and demand during peak-hours and the safety in the working of power system, so as to promote the sustainable growth of power effectively.