| Since 1992, development of Chinese credit guarantee for the Middle-and-small-sized Enterprises(MSSE) has experienced three phases that are probing move, positively promoting and standardization-experimental unit, and the credit guarantee system for the MSSE continuously obtain a development and improvement. Appearance and development of the credit guarantee for the MSSE very well relieve the symptom of the MSSE that financing is difficult ,and greatly accelerate the development of the MSSE . However , for the elements of organization of credit guarantee for the MSSE itself and outer-ring environment , the activity of the credit guarantee for the MSSE faces all kinds of credit risk in the process of its operation .Therefore, it is the key to the sustainable and healthily development of Chinese credit guarantee for the MSSE that we shall research the mechanism of credit risk in the activity of the credit guarantee for the MSSE, effectively guard and control the credit risk.Cutting-in from this point, this article, on the base of the general risk analysis of the guarantee organization and research of the credit risk control, using the research fruits of the banks outside and inside china and risk guarantee organization to reference, combining quality and quantity analysis methords and combining judgement of the specialists and science arithmetic, discusses how to manage risk efficiently by establishment of a risk alarming and control model, which can be used as basis of the guarantee decision and serve the purporse of perfecting the guarantee system of chinece small enterprisesThe dissertation is divided into 6 chapters. The first chapter introduces the general status of domestic and foreign guarantee and the latest research of guarantee risks. The second chapter introducethe mechanism of the credit guarantee for the MSSE in China. The third chapter analyzes the general risk of the credit guarantee and the character causation and trend of guarantee risk. The fourth chapter demonstrates the risk control of the credit guarantee organizations. The fifth chapter establish a risk alarm and control model on the base of the general risk analysis. The sixth chapter illustrates the implement process of the conclusion before through a case study of the guarantee enterprises in Zhujiang-delta area. The last chapter is conclusion, in which the fruit of this dissertation is discussed and the further problems is put forward.Though the risk early-warning system emphasis on providing a mean and ideology, it needs to be perfected both on structure and indicator, it is a exploring research on Chinese commercial guarantee risk early-warning system. It has some reference and practical value for research on Chinese commercial guarantee risk management and improve the Credit Guarantee system in our country. |