An Approach To Early Warning System For Risk Evaluation Of Marketing

Nowadays enterprises are all in complicated environment of marketing with keen competition and need to face various kinds of marketing risks which arise abruptly. The foundation of enterprises to carry on correct and prompt decision is to set up an accurate and perfect early-warning system of marketing. The main research work of this thesis is lying in it.The core to study early-warning system of enterprise's marketing is to study early-warning index system of marketing. The early-warning index as the carrier of enterprise's marketing activity information is the foundation and key to operate early-warning system of enterprise's marketing effectively. Firstly, the thesis fully use the research results of existing and relevant fields to analyze those existing problems briefly and set up a basic framework and model of assessing the early-warning system of marketing risk, then with proceeding these questions, it apply early-warning principle and multivariate statistical analysis method into the research of enterprise marketing domain and go further into enterprise's marketing early-warning index system. For final judge of risk assessment, the thesis adopts the fuzzy synthesis evaluate method assessment and artificial neural network method to compare with research. The advantage of the fuzzy synthesis evaluate method is simple and practical. But because thesis adopt expert estimation method to confirm the index weight, the conclusion is influenced by too many human factors and it is difficult to realize the dynamic demand after the index weight has changed in the marketing environment. I suppose that the defect would get some supplement very well through the way to use artificial neural network. The purposes to research the early-warning mechanism of marketing based on the probability model classification method lies in using the advantage of reducing false positive rate. This is a supplement of the theme research of my text.The originality of this thesis lies in adopting excellent mathematics method to divideand sum up index system of the marketing risk assessment scientific and accurately, eliminating the mutual interference phenomenon caused by information redundant between the indexes effectively and avoiding result distortion of the early-warning marketing. This thesis has adopted two kinds of methods to compare with research index system. Though, it is easier to choose flexibly and complements each other in practical application by use this way.