Study On The Fluctuation And Trend Of Grain Production In Hunan Province

Grain production is the foundation of agriculture that has great effect on the national economy. It is well known that shortage of grain can lead to chaos of economic development. Hunan Province, one of the most important regions of grain production and circulation in China, relies mainly on agriculture. The studies summed up by our predecessors manifest that the fluctuation of grain production in Hunan Province has exerted a tremendous influence to that of grain production in China. So the Study on fluctuation of grain production in Hunan Province has been chosen so as to supply the theoretical foundation of the increase of grain production in Hunan Province.On the basis of predecessors' studies, the fluctuation of grain production in Hunan Province is studied between per-unit-area yield and total areas of grain according to the statistical data from 1949 to 2004 and the climatic data from 21 representative climatological stations in Hunan Province.( 1 ) The per-unit-area yield of grain has primary effect on fluctuation of grain yield from 1949 to 2003, however, the contribution of the per-unit-area yield of grain is in the drop during the middle 1990' s and the contribution of total areas of grain goes beyond that of per-unit-area yield of grain while entering this century, which means that the proposition of total areas of grain is on the rise.( 2 ) It is of the primary importance of the fluctuation of meteorological phenomena factors in agriculture in the fluctuation of per-unit-area yield of grain. It accounts for 65. 22 percent of total proposition. There are the other factors, such as plant diseases and insect pests, the structure agricultural land use and strains of grain, etc.(3) There are several factors, such as the national policy about agriculture, market and drought and flood, which have great effect on the fluctuation of total areas of grain.(4) Several good advices are been put forward which are good weather...