The Research On System Prosperity-forecasting Of Grain Production In Hebei Province

Grain production is a important part of the national economy. The fluctuation of grain production is the reason of the fluctuation of national economy. It is necessary to make the system of grain production prosperity-forecasting. Most of the systems of grain production prosperity-forecasting have been made specially for the whole country. This thesis apply the prosperity-forecasting theory to the grain production of Hebei province. This can be foundation for the authorities to make the grain macro-policy. The thesis has studied the laws and features of Hebei province grain production, which basis on the theories of economic cycle and cyclic fluctuation theory and prosperity-forecasting theory. There is fluctuation in grain production of Hebei province. And we have designed grain production of prosperity-forecasting indictor in Hebei province , the number of indictor is 23,including grain price and so on. Then we divided this group of indictor into leading indictor synchronism indictor and stagnant indictor. Basing on it, we have drew up the diffusion indexes and draw up chart of color lamps in prosperity-forecasting, and we analyze the problem in grain production. The grain production has made great progress, up to 1998, output of grain reached 2917 ten thousand ton, but future position is not optimism. Leading diffusion index has declined, and chart of color lamps show there are twice middling caution in the late 1990?s. Besides that,a lot of problems in grain production existed, on some extent, those problems impacted the grain production of Hebei province. Aiming at result of prosperity-forecasting offer relevant countermeasure.