Sustainable Development Ability Analysis In Shanxi Province Base On The Ecological Footprint

Shanxi Province, which is located in the east of loess plateau, has abundant the mineral resources, and it is the important heavy chemical base of energy of our country. With exploitation of the large range, a long time, high strength to mineral resource, in addition the fragility of the ecological environment in the whole province, a series of ecological environment problems have been turned up, such as the ecology is degradated with higher speed, soil erosion is aggravated serious, the earth's surface is seriously collapsed, the groundwater resources are destroyed, etc.. Those have serious threaded sustainable development of the social economy in Shanxi. Therefore, the ability question of social economic sustainable development of Shanxi has caused extensive concern of the Party and government, and the whole province people. The coordinated development of "ecology" and "economy" has become the basic goal of social economic development of Shanxi in the future. Under this kind of situation, by application to the model of Ecological Footprint from the ecology supplies and the social economy demand two aspects, this paper analyse with the systematic equilibrium of supply and demand of ecological economy, estimate synthetically the ecological supply ability of Shanxi, analyse to the social economic sustainable development ability in Shanxi.This paper regards sustainable development theory as guidelines, base on the model of Ecological Footprint, it has structured the calculation model of the ecological footprint quantity in Shanxi, has carried on calculate to the ecological footprint amount of the whole province from 1978 to 2001, and comparative analysis the sustainable development ability of the social economy in Shanxi based on ecological footprint amount of different year correctly. It has clear about the sustainable development state of social economy which current Shanxi. As well as, it offers policy guidance and scientific basis for social economy sustainable development of Shanxi.Through analysis of ecological footprint quantity, the paper draws the following conclusions:(1) As a whole, it is the ascendant trend that the per capita ecological footprint over the years 1978-2001 in Shanxi province, from 1.085 ha/cap rises by 2.492 ha/cap, an average annual increase of 0.06 ha/cap, increased by 129.68% compared with 1978 and 2001. The situation accumulated year by year exists in the demand of the ecological footprint. According to composition of the ecological footprint demand, the per capita ecological demand for the fossil fuel accounts for more than 70% of the aggregate demand, and have the tendency to continue increasing. In the demand for the fossil fuel, take consumption demand of the coal as the core again, the proportions accounted for are more than 80%. So, it directly influences the changes of the aggregate demand of the ecological footprint to the change of the coal consumption demand.(2) From overall situation, it is rise- downward trend to per capita ecological carrying capacity from 1978 to 2001 in Shanxi province. The proportion of per capita ecological carrying capacity of cultivated land is the main, but its proportion demonstrates the downward trend. Through computational analysis, the per capita ecological carrying capacity of the cultivated land, the forest land, the meadow and building-up land, is greater than one's own per capita ecological footprint demands. However, at present, there are not...