Research On The Forecast Of Guangzhou's Social Public Security Status

The PLA and the Armed Police take on the responsibility of resisting foreign enemy's invading, maintaining national tranquilization and safeguarding people's security of lives and property, so maintaining public security order is also the PLA and the Armed Police's responsibility. In order to beat lawless and criminal affairs and construct a good social public security environment so as to ensure normal social order and people's security of life and property, all levels governments of Guangzhou use a lot of person, material resources and money to the effect that can meet the gradually bad public security. For the sake of nipping in the bud, supervising police decision-making and beating lawless and criminal affairs effectively, it's need to quantificationally forecast the intending public security of Guangzhou and analyze the main influencing factors of public security. This thesis focuses on forecast of Guangzhou's public security and correlation analysis of Guangzhou's public security, the main content in this paper list as follows:First of all, this paper introduces the background of forecast of Guangzhou's public security and correlation analysis of Guangzhou's public security, and presents the state of common forecast methods.Secondly, this paper makes an analysis of Guangzhou's whole public security status and law case data, indicates the deficiency of exist common forecast methods used for forecasting Guangzhou's public security, discusses the ascertain of forecast indexes, and then puts forward the ideas for resolving the forecast of Guangzhou's public security.Thirdly, this paper indicates a basic mathematic model for describing Guangzhou's public security status and establishes the foundation of forecast of Guangzhou's public security status. Then, this paper indicates a forecast method which based on piecewise cubic curve-fitting that based on the basic mathematic model which mentioned ahead. Considering the deficiency of using the data information which part from present relatively long, increase the using of data information which part from present relatively long and improves the forecast method which based on piecewise cubic curve-fitting.Fourthly, indicates using the methods of correlation analysis to analyze the influencing mechanism of public security so as to get the main influencing factors of public security and supports the police decision-making. Considering the uncertain affairs may influence the law case quantity, this paper indicates use linear regressive analysis model to amend the result that produced by forecast model which based on piecewise cubic curve-fitting.At the end, on the background of forecast of Guangzhou's weekly law case quantity, it uses the forecast model based on piecewise cubic curve-fitting to forecast Guangzhou's weekly law case quantity, compares and analyzes the forecast effect with GM(1,1) model and ARMA model, validates the forecast model which brought forward in this paper.