The Research Of Prediction In Population Economics

The number of population is an important index to reflect the development level for economy, scale the social development and the utilizing resource .If we grasp the number of population and know its developmental trend exactly, which will be of social importance. China has the first largest number of population in the word, which possesses one fifth of the world population. The problem of large population is the chief factor restricting Chinese economy and social advancement. So the scientific prediction of population gross is the chief problem in the population control, although the control theory that advocated formerly obtained upstanding effect to the population control in our country, with the development of society and economy, to establish rational population and economy policy must consider population gross for present in our country, the old prediction methods are not adapt to it. Therefore, it is needs a new prediction method.This paper presents the study background of the population prediction control at first, then analysis advanced prediction method in brief, depict the commonly grey theory of the system and the model procession of the prediction; because of the model of prediction exist disturbance, On the basis of grey system theory, this paper improves the grey model, i.e., add a process of first-order accumulative subtraction for the purpose of separating the increment part. This change strengthen increment information prominence, weaken disturbing factors and reveal the operational law of the system, thus higher precision can be gained. At the same time, the author unite the latest research production, put the increment concept into disperse grey model and new initial value grey model. The results show higher precision on china's Population gross according to the latest data of china population. Besides, no large quantities of data are demanded in collection and can be chosen for modeling which is useful especially when data are difficult to obtain. And it is flexible in model operation with small calculations. Consequently, the grey increment model is a useful tool for population prediction, which provide referenced suggestions for establishing population and economical policy.