Shandong Population Forecast And Analysis

After entering the 21 st century,Shandong has gradually entered the aging society.The population problem has a great influence on the economy of our province.So many scholars focus on population problem.The growth of population not only can hinder social development,but also can promote social development.For a long time,population problem is a hot issue all over the world.In this paper,the date from statistical yearbook of Shandong province.First in terms of demographic analysis using multivariate statistical analysis method for linear regression fitting data.Then reducing the original variables by factor analysis method.So we can intuitively analysis the factors of growth population and get the results.In terms of population prediction,we predict the population of Shandong of medium and long-term by the GM(7)1,1(8)model.Then we test the accuracy of the model and select the high precision model to predict the future population of Shandong province.In this paper,we choose gray forecast model,because it's error is very small and the fitting effect is good.According to the size of the population growth of Shandong province,and combined with the result of factor analysis,we concluded some Policy solutions.