Research On The Sustainable Development Of Population And The Cultivated Land In Inner Mongolia

The research on the relationship among population,the cultivated land and the grain production is the important content of social economy development, especially the agricultural sustainable development. Human is the owner of the producer goods, without doubt is the determining factor that impels the social progress .But human is also the consumer of subsistence means, among which the most important subsistence means—grain is a problem which many countries haven't been able to solve for many years. Our country has already entered the stage which the industrialization accelerated to develop, the demand of grain grows day by day, so the supply and demand condition of grain will directly affect the economical development and the living standard of people. As one of the main area of grain production in our country, Inner Mongolia may make certain contribution for the country food security , in condition that it meets its own need. But because of the vulnerability of natural ecological environment ,as well as the unreasonable utilization of land, the grain production is facing with tremendous pressure. The cultivated land is the carrier of the grain production. Although the cultivated area per person is big in Inner Mongolia ,but the GNP per person and the herdsman's per capital national income are low in the nation, which shows the utilize efficiency of the cultivated land is not high. The finiteness of the land resources and the low efficiency of the utilization , might well adds the inertia impact of the population impact , inevitably will put the adverse influence on the sustainable development of population and the land resources in Inner Mongolia.The research on the sustainable development of population and the land resources in Inner Mongolia is based on the historical materials. Firstly the article makes the definition of the relationship of population and the cultivated land ,as well as the sustainable development between the both., then carries on the analysis of the dynamic development and present situation of population and the cultivated land in the whole area . The theories foundation of the article is population resource environment economics, under the premise of theory description ,the article has emphatically discussed the consequences of the extant relation of population and the cultivated land, as well as the factors that influence the sustainable development of the two, which has laid the foundation for the establishment of the model later.The scientific forecast of population,the cultivated land and the grain will be the basis of formulating corresponding macroeconomic policies. The article uses the systems dynamics methods in the appraisal on the sustainable development of population and the cultivated land, and applies it in the research area of Inner Mongolia. Take the theory,method and model of SD as the main frame, use the newest edition of SD modeling software -- Vensim ,the article has established dynamic simulation model of population—cultivated land—grain in Inner Mongolia, and has carried on the forecast analysis on the basis of simulation of historical data. Then come to the conclusion :In the long-range view, the relation between population and the cultivated land in Inner Mongolia is not sustainable.Finally, on the foundation of the diagnosis analysis on the relation between population and the cultivated land, the article proposes the measures that Inner Mongolia will adopt to realize the sustainable development of population and land resources in future, all of which will provide references for the macroeconomic decision-making.