The Research Of Population Bearing Capacity For Jinzhou District In Dalian City

Population is the most important factor in achieving the goal of sustainable development,and it is to settle the issue of population that we carry the study on population carrying capacity. Taking the issue of carrying capacity of Jinzhou district in Dalian city as its research target, this paper points out that it is necessary to research the issue of the carrying capacity of Jinzhou district on the basis of inquiring into the present situation, the problems and causes of the growth of Jinzhou district population, and builds up the interrelated analytical model to calculate,analyze and evaluate the quantity and the carrying capacity of 2020' s Jinzhou district population, combining with the local resources, circumstance and the present of economical growth, applying the method of calculating by water carrying capacity,land carrying capacity and ecological footprint. The results shows that although the population growth rate of was continuously decline,the population carrying capacity had declined more,and so that more pressure was loaded on the population.The following is the conclusions of the paper. Firstly, the research on issue of capacity is accorded with the requirement of the society development with its necessity and importance of the present meaning. The final purpose of researching the carrying capacity of Jinzhou district is to realize the balance and harmonization, to realize the continuous development; Secondly, there are so many ways tocalculate the condition of the growing population that this paper adopts the method of Grey related analysis and Linear Model to calculate the quantity of Jinzhou district' s population in 2020,taking the different birth rates as the basis; Thirdly, in the research of carrying capacity, this paper adopts Ecological Footprint to build up the analyzing model to evaluate the carrying capacity;Forthly, give some policy advice about population development strategy for the construction.These effective measures include: (1) to strengthen the management and control the population size, (2) to accelerate the strategic adjustment of population structure, (3) to deal with and prevent the aging of population actively,(4) to follow the enviornmentalism while economy advaced,(5)to advocate the life style of resource-saved and environmentt-protected and so on.