Dynamic Study Of Population Size And Carrying Capacity In Xinjiang Urumqi

Urumqi, as the capital of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, is the centerof politics, economy, culture, science and technology in northwest China. It plays animportant role in the implementation of the leaps and bounds in the process of inXinjiang. Moreover, the city of Urumqi is located in the Central Asian region and isfocused to build itself into an international metropolis in Central Asia to play the frontof the Chinese and Central Asian countries. This faster, more in-depth urbandevelopment is bound to bring changes in the size of the population. Xinjiang also aremore vulnerable areas of the ecological environment, population changes associatedwith many aspects of the economy, resources and environment. We are to achievesustainable urban development, population and economy cannot be ignored, therelations of resources and the environment, due to population capacity of the city oneof the key issues to achieve sustainable development, so this thesis, Urumqi, changesin population size and the dynamic analysis of bearing capacity as the main content.Urumqi’s Population Carrying Capacity is the object of this paper. The analysisof the status of the urban population size and the status quo, based on the size of thepopulation forecast based on the different programs, combining the resources ofUrumqi, economic, environmental and multi-faceted, multi-angle of the populationand economic carrying capacity, population carrying capacity of resources and therelative population carrying force and other methods, through the establishment of acorrelation analysis model, now and in the city of Urumqi in the next20years,population carrying capacity analysis and forecast evaluation.The main conclusions are the following aspects:1. In this paper, we use the CPPS demographic software prediction, regressionanalysis and forecasting, and GM Gray prediction model in three ways, five kinds ofdifferent angles. The populations of Urumqi were high, medium and low threedifferent programs forecasts. Come to the next20years, the size of the population of Urumqi continues to expand, but the population has not reached the peak, and thepopulation growth rate in steady decline.2. According to the dynamic analysis of the population carrying capacity, theresults show that the Urumqi City, the current level of population carrying capacity ina normal state in2011-2030and20years, Urumqi’s Population Carrying Capacity areon the rise, but more pronounced decline in the index of population carrying capacity.Bearing pressure of the population is increasing; the expected population in2025willbe overloaded.3. Economic carrying capacity of the population than the population carryingcapacity of resources and the relative population carrying capacity must be large; thesteady development of the economy can carry a bigger population in the city. Due tothe limited nature of the natural resources of the city， the population of Urumqi,carrying capacity of resources in large part to the constraints of limited naturalresources. The city’s population carrying capacity is determined by the population-Economy-Resources and Environment, an integrated system, the relative populationcarrying capacity, select the range of small values of the population carrying capacityand population carrying capacity of resources.4. Put forward suggestions for the problems in Urumqi, the population size andcarrying capacity analysis:(1) persistence and fertility policy, to further promote thestable development of the size of the population;(2) local conditions, guidance,effective control of population guide rational population distribution;(3)strengthening the rational development and utilization of natural resources, theestablishment of reasonable resources protection and utilization mechanisms;(4) thedevelopment of recycling economy and build a resource-saving society.