Dynamic Analysis And Forecast The Track And Field Athletics Result Of Xinjiang University Student

The paper dynamic analysis the variation trend of the university students'achievements in track and field competition in Xinjiang in the last 10 year, taken the track and field results of the university students in XinJiang from 1998 to 2007 as the object of study, establishing gray GM(1,1) many dimensions forecast model groups, and compiling the M file of gray forecast and test links under the MATLAB software environment, then predicts the future results , analysis the factors and put forward some corresponding suggestions .The paper is divided into six chapters:The first part is about introduction. It describes the basis of the selected subject , the object and method of study and the content and research ideas. The second part is about"retrospective analysis the track and field results of the university students in XinJiang". Comprehensive analysis the number and structure of participants, the athlete numbers above second-rate and break-record and etc, we can draw the conclusions that track and field's total standard is not high , women sports event has landslip phenomenon and the standard of ethnic minorities men sports athlete has developed.The third part is about"the study of gray forecast modeling methods in the track and field results of the university students in XinJiang". it describes gray theory and its fundamental principle, then chooses gray GM(1,1) many dimensions model groups according to the features of the sports field, elaborates minutely the operation steps of gray GM(1,1) and establishes the gray forecast M file under MATLAB software.The fourth part is about"gray forecast analysis the track and field results of the university students in XinJiang". Firstly , we divide four item groups based on the track and field results of the university students in XinJiang , then set up gray GM(1,1) many dimensions model groups according to each item group, and choose the highest accuracy forecast modeling to predictive analysis. And revealed the following findings: the tendency of the men event groups of speed is steady and hoist , the comparatively large extent is hurdle race; the change of its competitive strength in endurance event is uncertainty in curved one, while the results of middle-distance race keeps high standard; the standard of throwing race is high and the development tendency is well. While the dash achievement in the women speed race is alternating and slide backward, especially for the tabbing; the women endurance race is slide backward; the long jump and the gold medal winner in triple jump keep ascending, but the whole results of triple jump has downtrend, the results of discus throw go down largely; the first place in the javelin race keep ascending, but the whole strength is not strong.The fifth part is to analysis the factors which affect the track and field results of the university students in XinJiang.The sixth part is about consideration and suggestions.Sum up the gray theory,based on the M file applicable modeling under the MATLAB software and the changeable characteristic of the track and field results in XinJiang, and put forward some corresponding suggestions on how to raise the track and field results in the universities of XinJiang .