The Reform And Open Policy 30 Year China Man Track And Field Meet Result Development Change's Multi-dimensional Analysis And The Forecast Study

The reform and open policy 30 years, our country athletics sports has obtained the glorious triumph which progresses by leaps and bounds, otherwise is the Chinese athletics track and field because of it's no synchronized development and go-down trend.The article analyze China track and field athletics the future trend of development through to the Chinese man track and field athletics near 30 year's development evolution and China track and field athletics history,the present situation; Through a large number of literature surveys: the current development of China's track and field athletic factors were more scattered, mostly take steps the proof from the different angle, are few in the system research aspect, especially in China Athletics primary and secondary aspects of development factors study. This article obtains from the literature,absorbing extracting,widely recommended and summarizes after the extraction, and solicits the views of relevant experts, analyze each kind of factor which affected the Chinese man track and field athletics health, stable, develops continually for further from the movement training study, the sports sociology, the sports economic, the sports cultural science, the sports management science's angle obtained.It provides a scientific, effective basis for the further study of Chinese men's track and field from the practice of sustainable development and the operational level, to take targeted measures to promote and facilitate the sustainable development of China's track and field;Analyzes the China track and field athletics Sustainable development the overall mentality and the measure. Has carried on the dynamic forecast to the future track and field result's trend, establishes the forecast model.This research mainly using the literature methodology, the logical deductive method, the questionnaire survey procedure and the mathematical method of average comes to the Chinese athletics track and field meet to carry on the analysis and the research. Draws the following conclusion:1 China track and field athletics track event overall athletics level presented the development tendency in the past 30 years, showed that the Chinese men's track event development momentum was good, to catch up with the world advanced level in the persistent efforts of the road.2 Chinese man track and field meet field events project after having experienced the 80s, the 90s's decline, presents the development since the 21st century the tendency.3 Chinese and world man track and field each item of group compares:Chinese track and field level and the level of the world track and field still have a certain distance from the middle or lower level in the world should be. Even if some of the projects growth rate than the world growth rate, but because of China and the world have different starting points, catch up with the world's advanced level of the road will also be long. But it also shows that the Chinese track and field athletics there is potential to be tapped, the objective conditions for sustainable development exist.4 carry on statistical processing through the expert questionnaire survey procedure to influencing factor's evaluation, find out the primary and secondary contradiction, and identify the entry point,targeted,with emphasis on affect Chinas development and changes in men's track and field performance of the main factors are:Movement training study:The athlete selection, the training system, athlete's athletics ability, the movement training plan and control, the track and field meet basic theory Sports sociology:Economic force, technical strength, mass sports Sports economic:Funds investment, commercialization factor Sports cultural science:Sports material culture, sports idea culture, sports system culture Sports management science:Athlete, trainer, sports funds, commodity equipment5 According to the grey theory, takes the forecast by 1999-2008 year every year each first 10 average result the primary data, the chaotic primary data will reorganize the regular strong production sequence, then the establishment corresponding forecast model, is for the purpose of for the Decision-making body determining that our country track and field meet developmental strategy, disposes the track and field each item of funds investment to provide the basis reasonably; In order to clearly recognize that the contemporary track and field each development momentum, tried to find out its law of development, then arranges its training to provide the reference effectively.