Gray Forecast For The Physical Growth Of Adolescents On Uygur And Han In Xinjiang

In today’s economy of high speed, the rhythm of life is accelerating and the lifestandard is enhanced, so it is necessary for modern people to adapt into thefast-developing society and to improve their fitness and health. With urbanizationand the development of the aging society, changes have taken place in people’s life.Sport has become the important content for people to improve their health and thequality of life. For a country, teenagers are like the sun at eight o ’clock in themorning and they are the hope of the nation. Therefore, teenagers’ physique is thekey to improve the health of Chinese people. Only if the teenagers’ physiquecondition is improved, the national comprehensive strength will be further improved.So the understanding of the teenagers’ physique condition in our country is theprimary task of strengthening teenagers’ physique.In this paper, the author makes use of literature material, mathematical statisticsand DGM(1，1) model in gray theory. By the data of four times physicalinvestigations of Wei and Han in Xinjiang in1995,2000,2005and2000, the authorforecasts grey trends in the dimensions of height, weight and chest circumference ofthe adolescents of Wei and Han in the next10years in order to reveal the growthtrend of the adolescents in urban and rural areas in the two races. The aim of thisthesis is to monitor adolescents’ physique of Wei and Han in Xinjiang, to make thenational overall physical research more systematic and more comprehensive, toprovide a scientific basis for education in elementary and middle schools and toimprove the physique of minority students.The results show that from1995to2010, except that the index of the chest ofthe boys and girls of Han of some age groups is stagnant in growth, the body shapeof the rest grow to different extent. The prediction data of the index of body shape in2015and2020also shows obvious long-term growth trend, especially the changes inheight and weight. The growth level is in a stage of sustained growth, but growth rateis becoming slow gradually. Overall, the development of the girl’s body shape beginsearlier than that of boys. The development of the body shape of the students in urbanarea begins earlier than that of students in rural area. There is still a gap betweenurban and rural students, but the gap is reduced. The adolescents’ index of bodyshape of Wei is slightly lower than that of adolescents of Han.In terms of height and weight, the overall characteristic is that the adolescents’physique in urban area is higher than that in rural area. Adolescents’ height andweight of Wei is slightly lower than that of adolescents of Han. The index of thechest of the boys and girls of Wei in urban area is higher than that in rural area. Girlsin urban area of Wei and girls in rural area are almost the same in the index of thechest. The index of the chest of city boys at the age of7~13years old is lower thanthat of country boys, while the index of the chest of city boys at the age of14~18years old is higher than that of country boys.