The Agricultural Products Risk And Study Of The Risk Prevention Mechanism In China

This text under the great background of the market for agricultural products of our country after the accession to the WTO integrating with global market for agricultural products all-sidely soon and the process accelerate of opening agricultural product market puts forward the objective demand of evading the price risk of agricultural products according to the fact of the market uncertainty becoming greater faced by subjects of market.Analyse the reason and mechanism of the agricultural product price risk, draw on experience of the advanced agricultural product price risk management of the western developed country, put forward the policy recommendations of taking precautions t the mechanism agains price risk to set up government, market, peasant household's plural agricultural products risk management system. Meet the objective demand for evading price risk of person who produces or market the agricultural product of our country. The research contents of this text are as follows:1 .Origin cause and inherent mechanism of the price risk of agricultural products, at first the general risk theory is explained including the concept, economics explain , nature of risk and the concept of risk management. Then the forming of the agricultural products price risk of and inherent mechanism are analysed.The origin formation cause of the agricultural products price risk mainly includes four respects: Change of the total amount of supply and demand of agricultural products (Agricultural products price of the input, progress of the production technology of agricultural products, producer's expectancy to the market situation of agricultural products in the future , change of agricultural product store and change of agricultural product demand structure), development degree , national adjustment of agricultural policy and steady degree of the international market.When the inherent mechanism of the price risk of agricultural products is analysed, the dynamic Cobweb model and rational expectancy cobweb model are used.Through linear regression analysis of the relations between the price fluctuate of agricultural product and the income uncertainty of agricultural product operator, the author finds that there are Positive obvious correlation relation. The author draws the conclusion that under the competition pressure of the risk of two markets in domestic, world, the price risk of agricultural products has already become of the main risk that the operator of agricultural product of our country has faced.Also the current situation and predicament of agricultural products price risk management are analysed in this part at the same time, thus propose setting up government, market, peasant household's plural agricultural product price risk management mode.2.Role of the forward contract in the price risk management of agricultural products. Made-to-order fanning —Application of the forward contract in the price risk management of the agricultural products it plays a certain role in evading price risk of agricultural products. There are a series of issues many at the same time such as non-standard order, low rate of performing duty, etc. The origin that the question produces is that a risk mechanism of interests is unreasonable, shared risks benefits-sharing and risk security mechanism should be set up. this make the function of made-to-order farming be improved constantly in practice.3.Function of agricultural products forward market in the price risk management of agricultural products. The agricultural product forward market has function that the price finds and hedges, may play the role of effective evading the price risk of agricultural products fully. But the development of the agricultural product forward market exist many problems such as: There is less variety, the trade system is not improved, the price signal is distorted, the investment subject lacks. This entire make its function can't fully play. In thistext it propose to improve from policy environment, structure of variety, trade system and investment subject, etc.4.construct the option market of agricultural products and manage price risk of agricultural products. Explain the function mechanism in evading agricultural product risk and option of the price risk price at the model. Propose to combine option market of agricultural products with made-to-order farming it raise profit except that fraud to defend the price risk of agricultural products. The author has carried on comparative analysis the function of taking precautions against the price risk of agricultural products and made-to-order farming, propose structuring the option market of agricultural product of our country, combine option market of agricultural products with made-to-order farming, look for personal reason and rational joint of collective, give full play to the function of evading the price risk of agricultural products of two kinds of hedging instruments.Several questions of utilizing the option market of agricultural products should be noticed are: Issue relevant regulations, policies and promote the construction of the option market of agricultural products; Improving the agricultural product spot market tamps the development foundation of the option market of agricultural products; Fostering the market main body offer the prerequisite for setting up the option market of agricultural products; Strengthening the theoretical development of the research of option market guided the option market of agricultural products.5.Government's policy choice in the price risk management of the agricultural products. The government mainly uses the following tactics: Lowest protective price policy of agricultural products, fostering the market main body and setting up and improving the information system of agricultural products to manage price risk of agricultural products.