The Study Of The Agriculture Products Price Risk And Its Evading

As one of the fundamental industries of our national economy, the products of agriculture are the most basic necessities of human and main raw material of industry and one of the main commodities of commerce. So agriculture plays a unique role in the development of the whole national economy. However the price of agriculture products is related to the development of agriculture itself and the stability of the whole commodity price. Therefore, as the basic price, its fluctuation must cause the fluctuation of the whole commodity price. After we join WTO, our agriculture products will integrate into the international agriculture products market. With the all-side open of the market, the uncertainty of the market our main part of our agriculture products market is facing increases gradually. Under this kind of background, this article presents the subject " evade the risk of our agriculture products is the realistic requirement of the producers and the sellers". Through analyzing the reasons and principles of the risk forming of the agriculture products, and use the advanced risk managing experience of the western developed countries for reference, this article presents the policy proposal of the evading way and the defense system for agriculture products price, then meet the objective needs of evading the price risk of the agriculture products producers and sellers. This article bases upon the current three agriculture problems of our country, and makes detailed analysis and study of the price risk and evading ways. It uses the related knowledge of futures market, options market and forward contract, and the functions of evading risk to explain how to avoid the agriculture products price risk. It also presents the feasibility suggestion and solution, which provides a realistic and feasible way for the steady income of the peasants.The study content of this article is as follows:1 .The reason of forming and its affection of he agriculture product price risk:The reason of forming of the agriculture price risk includes four sides: the fluctuation of the demands and supply total amount of the agriculture products, the influence of the national agriculture policy, the affection of the market and circulation factors, and finance currency factor. The writer uses the cobweb theory to analyze the inner principle of the agriculture product price risk. The conclusion is: the price risk has become the main risk the agriculture product producer and proprietor are facing.2. The agriculture futures market's function in the price risk managing of the agriculture products: it has the functions of price discovery and hedging. This article concretely explains how to make full use of the futures market's function to evade the price risk efficiently. Meanwhile it analyzes the problems existing in the development of the futures market. It also explains to improve it depending on the policy, structure, trading rule and investment main body.Sharing and risk guarantee in the practice to improve the functions of the order agriculture.3. The agriculture product options market's effect on the price risk managing: this article expatiates the options market effect principle and option pricing type for evading the agriculture product price risk. It also points out a series of problems existing in the evading the price risk of the options market. This article compares the order agriculture with the agriculture product options market's functions during the course of it evading the price risk, and presents the proposal of setting up the agriculture product options market, combining the order agriculture and options market and making full use of the functions of two tools to evade the price risk.4. The forward contract's (order agriculture) effect in the agriculture price risk managing: on the basis of introducing the effect of the forward contract on the agriculture product price risk managing, specially analyze the order agriculture (a form of the forward contract) effect on evading the price risk. At the same time, it points out a series of problems such as nonstandard order, low efficiency of fulfilling the contract. The reason the problems is the profit risk system is unreasonable. Should set up a system of profit5. The police choices of the government in the management of the agriculture product price risk: The government mainly adopts following strategies: the policy of lowest protective price for the agriculture products; cultivate the market main body and establish the perfect information system of the agriculture products, manage the agriculture product price risk, cultivate the professionals, standardize the futures brokerage companies, strengthen the development and management of the futures types, make effort to cultivate the mature big type, widely develop the international communication and cooperation, and the government should strengthen the cultivation of the market main body.6. It presents the managing pattern of multivariate agriculture product price risk of the government, market and peasant.