Research On Early-warning System Of Real Estate

As the important industrial and new economic growth point of national economy, real estate is provided with the cyclic behavior. And this behavior maintains close ties with national macroeconomic cyclic behavior. In order to prevent the cyclic behavior of real estate market, adjust the relationship between supply and purchase of real estate markets, this paper present real estate early-warning system which can appraise present conditions of real estate market accurately, can predict future tendency of it and can supervise its normal circulate in the whole journey.This paper primarily research and discuss in the points as follows:1. Expatiate the base of periodic fluctuate deeply and discuss the cause and characteristic of it.2. Discuss the two exponential calculation methods particularly and apply it into real estate early-warning system.3. Introduce leading component analysis methods into the insurance of dynamic index and classify and synthesis them. Besides, receive a suit of scientific and logical index system.4. Partition the structure of early-warning system and discuss its design process.5. Using fluctuate intension index function improve on DI and CI and analysis the improvement result.6. Apply this system to real estate market of WuHan in 1997-2002.In a word, this paper explain its foundation and principle on the base of theory angle firstly. Then research its structure deeply and design this process. Moreover, discuss an imagination of its breadth and precision. Following , use the system to imitate its procession and carry on a research of the result. At last, look into future prospect of its developing—tendency.