Situation Analysis And Forecasting And Early-warning Research For Heilongjiang Soybean Production And Sale

China is a major country for soybean producer and consumer in the world,the rapid development of Chinese soybean industry,with the increase of soybean import in recent years,but at the same time,the domestic soybean crushing market gradually controlled by imported soybean or foreign soybean products enterprises.Most of the soybeans imported are genetically modified,with high unit yields and far lower produce costs than non-genetically modified soybeans produced at home,this brought great impact on the production and sales of domestic Soybean.Heilongjiang Province as the main soybean production area in China,has appeared that it is difficult for farmers to sell soybean,leading to soybean planting income become less.The soybean planting industry in China is getting worse and worse.In order to balance the soybean production and sales,improve the farmer income,make the price stability,and ensure the soybean industry developing healthy and orderly.It's very important for us to establish effective early warning system of soybean production and sales on the basis of advanced early warning system of agricultural products in developed countries.The research is consisted of the following aspects:1.Analyses supply and demand of soybean market.The results show that: Soybean stock to use ratio is 28.6% in 2017 in International,soybean supply is sufficient.Soybean stock to use ratio is 18.4% in 2017 year in domestic,soybean stock is reasonable,but China's soybean degree of dependence on foreign trade is 87% in 2016,it depended heavily on imports.2.Analyses the Heilongjiang soybean production and sales situation.The analysis results show that: The production of soybean in Heilongjiang is declining.In addition,it has higher production cost and lower oil production rate for Heilongjiang soybean compare with American soybean,so the sales situation of Heilongjiang soybeans is not good.Last,the soybean production income in Heilongjiang is lower,and has no comparative advantage compared with rice and corn.3.Use moving weighted average method,trend extrapolation,grey model and back propagation neural network to calculate the Heilongjiang soybean production and sale status from 2017 to 2020 year.The analysis results show that: affected by the subsidy policy,soybean production in Heilongjiang increased slowly,soybean subsidies reduced soybean production costs,and soybean sales gradually improved.4.Build the early warning index system,use coefficient of variation method to calculate the weight of indexes,use empirical method to calculate the dividing line of the warning area,use time-difference correlation analysis to discriminate early warning indexes,use the Principle of ray mapping to calculate the dividing line of the early warning area,then,we constructed early warning system of soybean production and sale by using statistical method,entropy method and BP neural network.Early warning results show that: In the next four years,the production and sale situation of Heilongjiang soybean will continue to be heavy bad.5.Design and build the early warning platform of Heilongjiang soybean production and sale.This paper has been analyzed the present situation of Heilongjiang soybean production and sale.In practice,it can provide a basis for guiding the healthy development of Heilongjiang soybean industry.At the same time This paper has been doing some meaningful exploration and practice to forecast and early warning methods,it may provide the theory reference for the related field researcher and extend to other fields.