Hereby It Establishes A Model For Analyzing Sensitive Of Nonlinear And Multifactor Of Investment Project

The feasibility appraisement of an investment is a basic part of the investment in fixed assets and the foundation for implementing scientific investment decision. In order to meet the needs of the investment of industrial construction and the change of themes in financing and scientific decision-making, and to correspond to the reality of implementing appraisement analysis of high-veracity projects in the designs. taking into account the problems involved in application in economic appraisement under the new situation and the progress made orienting to internationalization, this paper analyzes and distinguishes the sensitive elements affecting investment benefit, in the meantime, based on claude elwood Shannon`s information Entropy , Hereby it establishes a model for analyzing sensitive of nonlinear and multifactor of investment project . In order to remedy the defects in the above two means, this thesis attempt to introduce the sensitive entropy concept in thermodynamics into field and bring up another new risks analyzing Investment Project Risks sensitive Analyzing Method Based on the sensitive Entropy Theory. This method describes all kinds of risks factors existing in the lifecycle of investment project with the most typical distribution function triangular distribution, takes the correlation between risks factors into account; makes use of the properties of multiple random function, works out the characteristic number of evaluating indicator. Finally, according to the sensitive Entropy Theory, utilizing nonlinear optimization method, the probability distribution function of evaluating indicator can be figured out. Meanwhile, in order to facilitate applying this method, the Mathcad Language is adopted for writing a risks sensitive analyzing program to provide assistance The implementation method that please input the text and probe into the model finally, list the procedure block diagram, point out the thinking of programming. Can finish the national economic benefits after stating this model, calculating and charging, the income , national analysis of economic benefits and financial analysis of economic benefits , sensitiveness analysing , uncertain factor are chosen. This method doesn't require the independence between risk factors, and the distribution function of evaluating indicator under the sensitive Entropy Theory is the most appropriate one. This method is often used for risk sensitive analyzing of large-scale complicated investment project. Therefore, it has theoretic and practical value.