Research On Risk Assessment Of Project Process Based On Information Entropy

As a complex system engineering, risk assessment and management of the project process has important features of process-oriented and dynamic. Because of many uncertain risk factors, the final performance of risk is schedule delay and cost increase in the course of project implementation. Therefore, risk assessment has important research significance especially for the comprehensive risk assessment of the progress and cost of the project.Firstly, this paper has summarized the risk characteristics of the domestic and international project process and the risk analysis method, and has discussed the application of information entropy in the risk studies of the project process. The risk factors of the project process are studied and impact to the cost and process, and then the function relation of the cost and process is obtained from the correlation of the cost and process in the engineering project. After analysis the theory of the random network and the Petri nets, established the risk GERT and Petri nets evaluation model of the project process based on information entropy, and progress and the cost of relationship is applied to the risk evaluation model to evaluate the integrated risk of progress and the cost. Finally, the basic theory of Monte Carlo simulation is analyzed, and risk of the project process is simulated based on the software of Crystal Ball. The simulation results respectively compares and analyzes with the engineering examples of the risk GERT and Petri nets evaluation model, and to be further verified to the risk evaluation model of this paper.In risk assessment perspective of the project process based on information entropy, the systematic and dynamic risk evaluation and analysis methods are used. The combination of information quantification and the probability analysis, and the combination of network analysis methods and description of the project process, the comprehensive effect of uncertain risk to project schedule and cost is study. A new visual angle and theory method is provided for risk assessment and prediction.