Research On Forecast Model Of Commercial Housing Consumption

In recent years, the fast development of the real estate profession produces greatly stimulative function on comprehensive development of the city and speeding the residence construction and improving the people living conditions, but the problems about the regional and structure of the real estate market are still very outstanding. It reflects that the price of housing rises too quickly and the confliction of the supply and demand is outstanding and the structure of the market supply is inconsequence. In order to solving these problems, we should only forecast the consumption of commercial housing scientifically. Thus, we can provide the scientific basis for controlling the tempo of the real estate profession, improving the structure of the supply and demand establishing the reasonable economic system.Standing the local real estate market and stressing on research of grey system theory the paper establishes the GM(1,1) model of grey system theory and the GM(0,N) model of grey system theory and the computer stimulation model of Markov chain on the basis of a great deal of inquisition and checking a great deal of document and data.The paper researches the actual application of these three models on forecasting consumption of the commercial housing.The paper adopts the method of the multi-layer fuzzy synthesis judgment to analysis and induce the factors which affect the consumption of the commercial housing and arrange and chose them after quantizing these factors. The computer simulation model of Markov chain simulates the sale process of commercial housing and forecasts the future commercial housing consumption. The GM(1,1) model of grey system theory turns these irregular and fuzzy data into regular data and forecasts the future consumption of commercial housing by simulating the regular of these data.. The GM(0,N) model of grey system theory introduces those factors which are chosen by the method of fuzzy judgment and analysis them for improving the GM(1,1) model of grey system theory and making it more better accordantly with practical application. On the base of forecasting scientifically consumption, the papercomputes the productive scale of local commercial consumption and take this result as foundation for enterprise by productive scale theory.By researching above problems, the paper provides a set of integral quantitative analysis method. This method promotes the scientific and professional decision when the enterprise for producing real estate decide how many scale they will product.