Research On Demand Forecasting Model Of Urban Public Housing System

Public housing system is a significant livelihood project and a critical contributionfor the improvement of housing policy and housing supply system, aiming to solve thedifficulties in housing of low-income households. Therefore，how to determine the specificscale of public housing scientifically and rationally to provide the reference for thegovernment’s final decision is becoming a urgent problem to be solvedIn order to know what data should be collected in a further study, this paper analyzesthe social affordable housing based on previous studies and the current situation of urbanpublic housing system in China, this paper analyzes influencing factors of indemnificatoryhousing from the perspectives of government supply capacity, urban housing demand andsituation of housing market. Grey correlation degree model is adopted for the empiricalanalysis of these influencing factors to obtain the distinguished. In light of the linearrelation between the four distinguished determinants and proportion of public housing，amulti-linear regression model is proposed for fitting, thereby the quantitative relationsbetween proportion of public housing and the four distinguished determinants can beanalyzed. A demand forecast for proportion of public housing in the next three years isconducted in combination with grey system model GM(1,1), which provides new insightsand methods for demand forecasting of indemnificatory housing, as well as suggestionsfor improvement of indemnificatory housing system and scoping of security objects.