The Risk Analysis On Our Commercial Real Estate

With the development of our country's residential real estate, the profit that developers can acquire becomes less and less. Therefore, the commercial real estate is becoming a new investment hot point due to its infancy and high profit. However, the exploitation of commercial real estate has high risk in our country because of the complexity of operation and the blindness of investment. In our some cities, the commercial real estate has brought a biggish economic loss to the government, developers, investors and operators due to the building blindly. Consequently, it is necessary to assess the risk of project synthetically during the exploitation and operation process of the commercial real estate. Now, the main estimate methods of risk in our country include the Experts Mark, Fuzzy Integrated Estimation and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Whereas, in these methods the people's subjective factors have more proportion and the calculation usual become complicated and unsatisfied because of the various risk factors. Therefore, it's necessary for us to find a fast and applied risk estimate method.This thesis summarized the characteristic and shortage of our commercial real estate base on the analysis of the development process and status in foreign countries. From the point of view of a developer, the thesis has analyzed our commercial real estate by the numbers and the risk factors and their characteristic are also identified and summarized. The paper also sets up the estimate system for risk indicator and describes a method for assessment;builds a model base on artificial neural network. Finally, through the test by the sample, the model can be satisfied.After the amelioration by Bayesian Regularization, the generalization capability and study rate of BP model has been enhanced obviously. This model can estimate the result of risk rapidly and solve the question of risk's complexity and pertinence effectively.