The Production Increase Potential Of Grain In JiLin Province

The production increase potential of grain in China and the future tendency of grain Supply-Demand relations have caused widespread concern among native and international theoretical researchers as well as policy makers. Industrialization and urbanization have become the main theme of our economic development with the growth of population, this trend, on the one hand will increase the demand for grain, on the other hand will decrease cultivated land and water resource, therefore increase the difficulty in the supply of grain. If we can't ease the constraint on the transformation from potential to production, during the summit period of population in 21st century, it's possible to have a gap of 100 million metric tons between the demand and the supply of grain in China. It's not realistic to bridge the growing gap and solve the foodstuff problem through international market. To stop the decrease of production increase potential of grain and increase the production increase potential of grain have become the rational choice for our grain development strategy at the beginning of new century.JiLin Province is one of important commercial grain bases in China, which has a stable supply ability in grain and a relative complete grain production system. JiLin Province played, is playing and will play a key role in our national grain supply, therefore, nurturing the production increase potential of grain in JiLin Province is an effective way to increase future grain supply.Based on the law of diminishing Returns, Public Good Theory, Economic Growth Theory and Technology Improvement Theory, this paper employs qualitative and quantitative analysis such as comparative analysis, historical analysis, structured analysis, systemic analysis, regressive analysis etc., and to search the issue of production increase grain in JiLin Province. It mainly includes following aspects,1. According to light, temperature and rainfall in JiLin Province and Miami model, calculate current theoretical unit production potential of grain in JiLin Province.2. From the view of grain production system, establish a norm system concerning evaluation of the production increase potential of grain, then employ correlation coefficient method, compare and analyze the potential advantages of five major grain areas, Jilin, HeBei, HeiHongjiang, AnHui, ShanDong and HuBei (2001-2003). According to respective sores, JiLin's increase potential is the second, following HeiLongjiang. JiLin is the better than the others in land productivity and labor productivity of grain. Besides, JiLin's the average cultivated land of agricultural labour is lower than HeiLongjiang only, so JiLin have verygood cultivated land resource, hi addition, the percentages of areas uncovered by Natural Disaster is lower, that is to say, JiLin has an infirm ability resisting disasters, there is a read for JiLin province to an improve agricultural technology against natural disasters. Average water resource is not too low, 59.54% of national average level. The shortage of water resource is a physical constraint on grain production increase. The low score on agricultural infrastructure investment shows that it has constricted the production increase potential of grain.3. Conduct a positive analysis on production increase potential of grain in JiLin Province. JiLin has potential advantages in such aspects as land, production structure, hardware input, technology input etc, and is constrained in resources, weather, research, promotion and service.4. Employ Cobb—Douglas production function to establish a model analyzing the grain production and the factors that affect the production of JiLin province (1985-2003). By doing so, we know the influence of all kinds of factors. We also get the contribution rates of all factors during the past 19 years. On the whole, in the year of 1985-2003, technology improvements contribute the production grain the most, about 33.45%. hi a long run, technology improvement is still the key for the production increase potential of grain. System, policy and the construction of agricultural infrastructure that hadn't materialized into the above-mentioned factors were counted for the second, about 26.57% or so. From the view of the production increase potential of grain, the construction of agricultural infrastructure centered with water conservancy facilities will become an important factor for production increase potential of grain.5. Based on the situation, to predict the developing tendency of those factors. According to the tendency, Cobb—Douglas production function model and Logistic model, predict the grain production of 2020 will increase by 30% at least, compared with 2003.6.For the current situation, propose resolutions: protect resources of cultivated land and water, stabilize the production ability of grain; accelerate the technology improvement, focusing on improved variety; increase physical investment, focusing on agricultural infrastructure centered with water conservancy facilities; improve overall production system and promote agricultural technology.