The Research On The Financial Pre-Warning System Of Listed Company

Financial crisis is that an enterprise can't repay the mature debt.It is the threat not only to the existence of the enterprise,but also to the investors,creditors and the interest of the country. With the deepening of China's market economy system reform and the rapid development on the domestic capital market, the complexity and the incertitude of the economy field is in creasingly obvious.It is a common fact that more and more enterprises are down to bankruptcy and liquidation because of financial crisis. So how to establish an efective financial early-warning system for enterprise to keep away the financial crisis is the urgent assignment of our financial management. This paper sets forth the analysis and discussion on using the Z-score model to predict financial crisis of the listed company and on perfecting the financial pre-warning system on the basis of the causes of the crisis, the basic theory of the system and the status quo on this field home and abroad.Chapter 1 has the specifications of financial crisis given by national scholars based on the definition of financial crisis, and then introduces its causes. Chapter 2 is about the basic theories of the financial pre-warning system, including its definition, connotation and contents, targets and functions. Chapter 3 reviews all the research work carried out on the financial pre-warning system both home and abroad, focusing on several international models with high representativeness such as Beaver's single-variable model and Altaian's Z-score model, as well as on domestic theoretic research and then analysis on the problems present during the research. Chapter 4 makes the conclusion after analyzing the Z-value table that the Z-score model has the applicability in predicting the crisis of domestic listed company, applying the Z-score model by collecting samples and data to make the Z -value table. Chapter 5 proceeds with the discussion on how to consummate the listed company financial pre-warning system. The suggestions are as follows: firstly, improving the the pre-warning models;secondly, using the integrated models with both single variable ones and muti-variables ones;and last but not the least, considering both financial and non-financial factors is also the key.Chapter 6 indicates that domestic researches carried out on the pre-warning system are mainly qualitive.So we are supposed to consider not noly the accuracy but also the applicability of the conclusions speculated subjectively as well as the modeling.