The Application Of The Economic Cybernetics In The Dry Bulk Cargo Market Forecast

Following the further development of the shipping and the ship-building industry in our country, the researching and establishing for the mathematical model of the shipping market will be more important, for the either country and the enterprise,.The correlative market of the shipping enterprise is a complex system, including the global shipping market, fuel market, and so on. For example, the shipping market does not only include the different type of ship, and also the different area and flight course.The Economic cybernetics describes the economy by the control theory concept and the method. All the factors can be observed at the same time in this method. The Economic cybernetics does not only reveal the action, and also the structure of the economy system, so it can reveal the essence of the system better.The Economic cybernetics has already been applied in the Chinese population control model, economical undulation cycle analysis, and so on with better theory and application result, but according to the report, there is no application in the shipping. Based on the scientific research project of China Ocean Shipping (Group) Company -"Researching the application of modern economic theory in the decision support system of the shipping / logistics enterprise", this paper makes a try on this direction. The main contents are the following:The background and the purpose of the paper are described in the first part, where the whole frame of the paper is also given. The content and the development of the economic cybernetics are introduced briefly in the second part of the paper. The dry bulk cargo market is described, and a theoretical model of the market is made in the third part. An economy control model of the dry bulk cargo market, the forecast simulation, and optimization of the model are given in the fourth part. The brief introduction of the decision support system and a preliminary appraisal on the applying of the model are given in the fifth part. Finally a summary and a direction of the model improvement and the consummation are given in the paper.