Oil Demand Forecast Of Sichuan Province And Research On Oil Development Strategy

Oil demand forecast is an important component of oil developmentstrategy. Scientific, reasonable and accurate analysis of oil demand is not only to protect our energy security, provide an effective means to solve the bottleneck of Oil, but also will have a major impact on economic health for achieving sustained and rapid development.Firstly, being the complex nature of the demand for Oil, historical data are used to analyze qualitatively the current situation of Oil demand of Sichuan province, main factors and the increase trend. And some existing methods of oil demand forecast are analyzed, such as Time Series Analysis, Artificial Neural Network method, Gray System method and Consumption elasticity coefficient method. Then Consumption elasticity coefficient method and Gray System method are applied to forecast the oil demand of Sichuan province. The final result showed that applying Gray System method to forecast the oil demand of intermediate stage has good effect, which the demand data got through Gray System method before 2010 have strong credibility. While Consumption elasticity coefficient method take accountant of the relationship of GDP and the oil demand , so applying it to forecast the oil demand of long- term (after 2010) has good effect.Finally, the study of oil Demand Forecast of Sichuan province may provide some inspiration for the construction of unified oil demand forecast system, at the same time it will provide a new reference for the formulation of oil policy of Sichuan province. Accordingly, the oil policy formulation becomes more scientific and effective.